You Kede (688158): How should You Kede be estimated
How does Youkude evaluate?
We believe that it is necessary to evaluate the company reasonably based on the four core factors of growth life cycle + industry boom cycle + self-development stage + scarcity of investment target: 1) cloud computing enterprises are relatively light assets and are not suitable for PB-based estimation methodsCost method, etc .; 2) For high-tech companies in a high-speed growth period, the predictability of cash flow is insufficient, so P / FCF, DCF and other income method valuations are not suitable for some emerging cloud computing and high-tech companies.3) For cloud computing or high-tech companies that are in a rapid growth period, if the sales scale has not reached sufficient economic effects, PE, EV / EBITDA and other estimation methods have certain limitations, and a variety of other 成都桑拿网 factors need to be considered comprehensively4) For cloud computing enterprises in a high-speed growth period, the sales revenue operation space is small, and it can better reflect the true value of the enterprise.
In summary, as a leading third-party neutral cloud platform service provider in China, Youkude is currently in a rapid growth stage. The market-to-sales ratio (PS, EV / sales) model is most suitable for the company’s current valuation.
For the evaluation of the global cloud computing market: 1) Relatively mature public cloud platforms such as Amazon AWS and Microsoft Azure, which are on the right side of the world, release PS by about 10 times (between 5 and 15 times);2) Due to different market and company development stages in domestic public cloud platforms, the estimated level is significantly different from overseas benchmark companies.
Taking Alibaba Cloud as an example, referring to the “2018 List of Unicorn Enterprises in China’s Enterprise Service Industry”, Alibaba Cloud in the enterprise service industry takes 710.
The estimated US $ 7.7 billion ranked first, corresponding to Aliyun’s FY18 revenue of 133.
900 million, PS is about 37 times, the sales ratio is significantly higher than Amazon AWS and Microsoft Azure.
3) Currently, SaaS companies are the main target of cloud computing related to US stocks, and they can also be used for reference and benchmarking to a certain extent.
The average valuation of U.S. SaaS companies is between 5 and 15 times. At the same time, due to factors including company shares, market space, growth and other factors, there are differences between different companies, such as ZOOM, Crowdstrike, and other target PSs that exceed 40 times., Far exceeding the industry average.
Investment logic: As the largest neutral third-party cloud computing service provider in China, the company expects to achieve zero net profit attributable to its mother in 20/21.
0 ppm, corresponding to PE852X / 431X, maintaining the “strongly recommended” level.
Risk warning: industry competition intensifies; new business expansion fails to meet expectations; progress in fundraising projects does not meet expectations.