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Yuanzu (603886): Persisting in Brand Positioning, Stores Expand Steadily

Yuanzu (603886): Persisting in Brand Positioning, Stores Expand Steadily

Mid-autumn 南宁桑拿 moon cake sales are highly competitive, with 19Q3 revenue +3.

82%, net profit attributable to mother +6.

01% Yuan Zu shares released the third quarter report of 2019, and the company achieved operating income of 17 in the first three quarters.

89 ppm, a ten-year increase of 8.

84%; net profit attributable to mothers2.

75 ppm, an increase of ten years6.

94%; net profit after deduction to non-returned mothers2.

65 ppm, an increase of 11 years.


In Q3, the company achieved revenue of 9 quarters.

5.6 billion, an annual increase of 3.

82%; realized net profit attributable to mother 2.

40 ppm, a six-year increase of 6.

01%, Q3 because the moon cake industry competition is fiercer than expected, the performance exceeded expectations.

We expect EPS to be 1 in 2019-2021.

15 yuan, 1.

32 yuan and 1.

49 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

  Demand for mooncake group buying channels is weak, and the price increase effect of cakes gradually shows up in the first three quarters of 2019.

33 ppm, a ten-year increase of 9.

17%; Chinese and Western pastry income 5.

57 ppm, an increase of 11 years.

82%; fruit revenue is 6,151 million, each increase of 1 level.

54%; moon cake income 6.

67 ppm, a 10-year increase3.


19Q3 Due to the impact of the economic environment, the mooncake group purchase channel feedback team customer purchases declined, and weak industry demand led to increased low-price promotions for peers. The company gave up some low-price discount group purchase sales in order to maintain brand power, and still achieved mooncake revenue through sales through retail channelsLow single digits are increasing.

In addition, the company started to increase the price of some cake products by 10-20% from April 1. As the cake card coupons gradually sold are implemented at the old price, it is expected that the contribution of price increase to the growth rate of cake revenue will gradually appear, and Q3 cake revenue will increase.Compared with the first half of the year, the speed has improved.

  The number of stores is in an expansion period, and it is expected that the net increase of about 30 stores in the 19Q1-Q3 direct sales channels will achieve revenue14.

900 million, a five-year growth of 5.

83%; revenue from franchising channels2.

40,000 yuan, an increase of 17 in ten years.

05%, the main business income realized by direct store sales accounted for 86% of operating income.

At the end of the third quarter, the number of company stores reached 655, a net increase of 24 from the end of 2018. Some stores under renovation in Q4 are expected to open. Gradually, the number of stores is expected to maintain a net growth of about 30. The company’s store expansion is expected to maintain the same rate next year.

  Gross profit margin increased, profitability increased slightly. The company’s net profit margin was 19 in Q1-Q3.

39%, an increase of 0 every year.

24 units; gross margin is 65.

91%, an increase of 1 per year.The 22 levels are mainly due to price increases of some products, and advance income from sleep card transfers.

In the first three quarters, the sales expense ratio increased by zero.

05pct, mainly due to increased personnel costs and advertising costs.

In the first three quarters of 19, the company lost 5.6 million yuan in non-current assets due to the disposal of fixed assets and store decoration due to the retirement of the original pos software; non-operating expenses increased by 12.17 million yuan, of which 9.88 million yuan was a charitable donation to charity funds;Net income decreased by 11.23 million yuan over the same period last year.

  Adhere to the high-end positioning, maintain the “buy” rating Yuanzu shares adhere to the high-end brand positioning, the number of stores is in the expansion period, the cash flow situation is better.

According to the actual sales of the Mid-Autumn Festival, the EPS is expected to be 1 in 19-21.

15 yuan, 1.

32 yuan and 1.

49 yuan (previous average 1).

21 yuan, 1.

44 yuan and 1.

64 yuan).

The 20-year PE estimate of the comparable company is 23 times. Due to the competition in the mooncake market or the intense expansion trend, Yuan Zu shares will be given 19-20 times PE estimates in 2020, with a target price range of 25.


44 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

  Risk warning: The number of stores is not up to expectations; product sales are not up to expectations; food safety issues.