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Yasui Food (603345): High-quality catering track barriers have become a high-quality growth

Yasui Food (603345): High-quality catering track barriers have become a high-quality growth

Barriers in the high-quality catering track have been established. The high-quality growth and flexibility of the 18-year frozen food industry have reached 100 billion yuan, and the catering channel is expected to maintain a 15% compound growth rate in 19-23.

However, the market has problems with the brand power / bargaining power of participating companies in the catering channel.

We believe that more attention should be paid to the important role and growth potential of frozen foods in the catering supply chain. As well as the leader in frozen foods, Anjing enjoys the high growth dividend of the industry.(Large single product strategy / multiple structure), capacity expansion (real estate sales model, CAGR of 19-21 capacity CAGR = 21%), the mechanism structure analyzes its core competitiveness in multiple dimensions, and is optimistic about the sustainability of its performance growth, and it will improve the sustainability of its performance.The price is open, and both performance flexibility.

We expected 19?
21EPS 1.

46/1.

84/2.

56 yuan with a target price of 75.

44?

77.

28 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

  We are optimistic about the increase in demand for frozen food and catering channels, and the improvement of the city’s share in the cycle of rising costs. We believe that it is for the frozen frozen hot pot products for the B-side catering channel (the market size in 18 years was 46 billion and the compound growth rate in 13-18 years was 12%)It is expected to maintain high growth. The frozen frozen rice industry itself is at a mature stage, but the catering channel is expected to maintain a compound growth rate of 15% in 2019-2023, and the growth rate is still 青岛夜网 fast.

And the concentration of the frozen food industry still maintains room for growth: CR5 = 23% for frozen frozen surimi products market and CR5 = 32% for frozen meat products.

In the cycle of rising costs, small enterprises are rapidly eliminated. Leading companies improve the advantages of large-scale procurement (guarantee the company’s unit procurement costs below the industry average), a more stable cash flow, and promote the increase of city share in the cycle of rising costs.

  Core Competitiveness: Channel Barriers + Product Power + Capacity Expansion + Mechanism Structure Channel Advantages: Adhering to the channel strategy of “the main body of catering circulation, supplemented by the supermarket and e-commerce”, the company had 662 dealers at the end of 19H1, and implemented personal service + refinementManagement, 杭州桑拿 common growth / shared benefits.

  Product power: multi-structure to meet the needs of the catering channel; “big single product” strategy (currently more than 10 million single products, increasing the degree of intensiveness and forming a scale effect); possessing the ability to create explosive products and meeting the target product development needsAbility to implement the “high-quality medium-high price” strategy.

Capacity expansion: Good cash flow supports capital expenditure. It is expected that the compound growth rate of the company’s production capacity in 19-21 is expected to reach 21%.

  Basic structure: Professional manager system, the first equity incentive for the first time after the completion of listing in November 19, performance evaluation 19-21 year revenue growth rate is not less than 18% / 14% / 10%.

  Optimistic about the continuity of Anjing Food’s performance growth and maintain a “Buy” rating. We expect 19?
21 EPS is 1.

46/1.

84/2.

56, refer to comparable companies on average 19 times PE in 19 years.

Recognize its copyright for a certain estimated premium, the main categories are: 1) optimistic about the development potential of Anjing in the catering supply chain; 2) the business strategy of “sale real estate” enables it to save a lot of cold chain transportation costs and cost competitiveness; 3)The post-cycle price increase is opened, and the price-selling ability is strong, which is conducive to the improvement of the post-cycle profit margin; 4) The purchase cost of the pig price increases during the cycle increases, and small businesses promote the accelerated elimination, which is conducive to the increase in the share of Anjing; 5) Optimistic about product strength (category advantage) +The cost advantage + channel expansion drives the expansion of income scale, but also has the potential to increase profitability.

We give the company 20 years 41?
42 times PE target price of 75.

44?77.

28 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

  Risk reminders: the price of upstream raw materials rises, but the final product price cannot successfully overcome the risks; the risk of increased market competition; and food safety issues.